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23.05.2025 05:16 AM
2025年5月23日歐元/美元預測

歐元區昨日公佈的五月 PMI 數據令人失望。製造業 PMI 從 49.0 下降至 48.4(預期為 49.2),而服務業 PMI 則從 50.1 降至 48.9(預測為 50.4)。此外,幾位歐洲央行成員(Knot、Wunsch、Centeno)都表態支持在下次會議上"及時"降息。這些發展使得歐元下跌了 47 點子。

另一方面,美國的 PMI 數據則表現強勁:

  • 製造業 PMI 為 52.3(預測 49.2,四月數據為 50.2)
  • 服務業 PMI 從 50.8 上升至 52.3(預測為 51.0)
  • 初次申請失業救濟人數從 229,000 降至 227,000

儘管如此,股票指數收盤漲跌互見(S&P 500 -0.04%),這迫使市場暫停並重新評估。因此,僅靠歐洲的發展不太可能改變目前歐元的上升趨勢。相反,這也顯示出需要更密切地關注股市。

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歐元僅僅略微突破每日圖表中的1.1256支持位。馬林指標從多頭區域邊界反彈,暗示歐元進行技術性修正。今天從上升動能開始,並且馬林再次試圖從下方突破零線。今日的白色日K線可能為下周更強的多頭動能奠定基礎。目前,市場似乎已經消化了預期在六月的降息。

今天,德國將發布第一季度GDP(預測:+0.2%,第四季度為-0.2%)。美國將公布四月份的新屋銷售數據,預計為694K,而三月份為724K。如果這些數據符合預期,可能進一步支持歐元的增長。

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在四小時圖中,價格今晨從1.1266支撐位反彈後穩步上升。Marlin振盪指標正在返回看漲區域,昨日因短暫跌破零線而產生的看跌信號已被證明為虛假信號。

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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