विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 12.05.2025

12.05.2025 10:04 AM

GBP/USD. May 12. Trump's First Trade Deal

Good day, dear traders! On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday nearly completed a rebound from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3205, with a reversal in favor of the British pound and growth toward the resistance zone of 1.3344–1.3357. A rebound from this zone today would support the dollar and continue the decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. Bears took the initiative in the market but have very little strength, despite support from last week's news background.

The wave structure has recently been simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the "bullish" trend is transitioning into a "bearish" one. The pound's decline is still too weak to be a trend, but over the past three months, even such declines have been rare. Bulls will struggle to push above the 1.3425 level without new announcements from Donald Trump about imposing or increasing import tariffs.

The news background on Friday was again positive for bears. Earlier, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meetings supported the dollar: the American central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged, while the British central bank cut rates. On Friday, it was announced that London and Washington had signed a trade deal, but traders showed little excitement. A few hours later, reports emerged that the final version of the agreement had not yet been signed and that most U.S. tariffs would remain in place. Thus, bears had another chance to improve their positions, but understandably, they didn't take it because it was more of a deal in name only. Trump needs this "deal" badly, as his three-month grace period is ending. If 75 countries don't sign deals by then, tariffs must be reinstated. Everyone knows how the U.S. economy reacts to tariffs. Trump likely doesn't want a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and continues to decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118. There are no forming divergences on either indicator today. The upward trend channel still indicates a "bullish" trend. The news background remains unfavorable for the bears, so I am not expecting a sharp decline in quotes yet.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 3,320, while the number of short contracts decreased by 1,956. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short contracts now stands at 29,000 in favor of bulls: 94,000 versus 65,000.

In my view, the pound still has prospects for decline, but recent developments may cause the market to turn around in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long contracts has increased from 65,000 to 94,000, and short positions have decreased from 76,000 to 65,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports show traders are not eager to buy the greenback.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

There are no scheduled economic events on Monday. The news background will not influence trader sentiment today.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart, or after two rejections from this zone with targets at 1.3265 and 1.3205. The second target was nearly reached. Buying will be possible upon a rebound from the 1.3205 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3344.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3205 to 1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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