فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 29.04.2025

29.04.2025 10:04 AM

Trade Negotiations Between China and the U.S. Are Ongoing. Markets Await Results (There Is a Risk of Local Declines in EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pairs)

Markets have once again paused amid uncertainty over whether a trade agreement between the U.S. and China will be reached anytime soon.

The cloud of uncertainty that Donald Trump has cast over the world — particularly financial markets — continues for the second month. The first 100 days of his presidency are ending, yet there are still no results or resolutions to America's trade disputes with the suppliers of virtually everything to its domestic market. His attempt at a cavalry-style charge to resolve everything has only partially succeeded. The main trade partner, China, was neither defeated nor forced to bow to the "emperor" — as Trump sees himself.

The American president continues to struggle like a trapped animal, alternating between threats and attempts, through his Treasury Secretary, to coax the Chinese authorities into a compromise deal. On Monday, Steven Bessent stated bluntly that "it all depends on China" when it comes to easing the trade crisis between Washington and Beijing. Amid confusion over whether negotiations are ongoing, investors have significantly reduced activity across all financial market segments. The ongoing trade conflict between the world's two largest economies fuels fears of a global economic slowdown.

Market participants are anxiously awaiting fresh economic data from China and the U.S., which will be released this week. The data could show a notable slowdown in U.S. economic growth—from 2.4% to nearly zero (0.2%)—and a decline in business activity in China, America's main trading partner for decades.

Despite weak market dynamics, participants hope that common sense will prevail and that the two sides will reach an agreement after a prolonged standoff. Otherwise, the slowing global economy could lead to serious problems that the U.S. might attempt to resolve through military threats.

Returning to economic matters: although the year started fairly well in the U.S. — GDP grew 2.4% in Q1 year-over-year — the expected near-zero growth, combined with anticipated declines in inflation and manufacturing indicators, could trigger a noticeable fall in the dollar. This would heighten the risk of a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as May–June.

Today, the market focus will be on the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for the U.S. It is expected to drop in April to 87.7 points from 92.9. Meanwhile, the JOLTS job openings report is expected to indicate a slowdown, falling to 7.490 million openings compared to 7.568 million in the previous reporting period. Although these figures are not critical compared to the COVID-19 pandemic period, they demonstrate a downward trend.

What to Expect in the Markets Today:

We can state that the absence of news on progress in U.S.–China trade talks will continue to restrain investor activity.

Stock indices are likely to consolidate while attempting slight upward moves.
The cryptocurrency and commodity markets are expected to move sideways, reacting mainly to tariff-related news and the upcoming U.S. oil and petroleum inventory reports.
The U.S. dollar index is expected to consolidate between 98.00 and 100.00 points on the Forex market.

The market is likely to "wake up" only if there is unexpected news about progress in the trade negotiations—something Beijing officially denies is happening behind the scenes.

Daily Forecast:

EUR/USD

The pair is consolidating above the 1.1345 level. News about declining inflation in the Eurozone and the possibility of a U.S.–China trade deal could pressure the pair and trigger a fall toward 1.1200 after breaking below the 1.1345 support.

A potential selling level could be 1.1329.

GBP/USD

The pair has reached a high of 1.3434, last seen on September 26, 2024, and is showing a local downward reversal. In the U.K., EY Item Club forecasts slower economic growth due to Trump's tariffs, revising its 2025 GDP growth projection from 1% down to 0.8% and lowering the 2026 forecast to 0.9%. This could pressure the pound if the dollar strengthens on news of progress in the U.S.–China trade talks. In that case, the pair could fall toward 1.3300.