The euro, the pound, and other risk-sensitive assets continue to rise against the weakening U.S. dollar, although the possibility of a rebound in the dollar—as well as the conclusion of trade deals between the U.S. and other countries—still remains. With just 10 days left until President Donald Trump's tariffs on certain countries are set to take effect, the White House appears unwilling to make concessions.

Although agreements with a dozen of the United States' major trading partners are expected to be reached by the July 9 deadline, many experts remain skeptical. Even the two agreements promoted by Trump—with China and the United Kingdom—are clearly not comprehensive and do not resolve the fundamental issues underlying the U.S. trade imbalance. These agreements leave many details to be negotiated at a later date.

"I expect the White House to announce a series of frameworks that it intends to label as trade agreements, but which won't meet the traditional definition of the term," said Tim Meyer, a law professor at Duke University specializing in international trade.

For dozens of other countries that have yet to reach agreements and were already affected by Trump's 10% base tariff as of April 2, the president has threatened to impose new tariffs beyond that baseline. These will mainly target smaller trading partners.

It's evident that the dollar is unsure how to respond, and as seen in recent months, it is likely to suffer again. Trump and his advisers continue to keep investors on edge ahead of July 9, sending cryptic signals about which countries are close to reaching agreements and which are falling behind—further complicating the outlook for the dollar. Only the final outcome will clarify the future of Trump's trade agenda.

On Friday, Bessent stated that around 20 countries that do not reach agreements by next Wednesday may continue negotiations, but their tariff rates will either revert to the higher April 2 level or remain at 10%, provided they are actively negotiating and close to a deal.

However, just yesterday, Trump repeated his threat to unilaterally impose tariffs on countries, stating that he might do so even before July 9. "The U.S. is not going to broker one-on-one deals with hundreds of countries," Trump said. "We can do whatever we want. I'd prefer to just send everyone a letter. Congratulations. You're paying 25%."

Later, the president abruptly announced on social media that he was halting trade talks with Canada over the digital services tax and threatened to impose a new tariff within a week on the U.S.'s second-largest trading partner. This move can also be interpreted as a warning shot to other leaders Trump views as uncooperative.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

At the moment, buyers need to focus on breaking through the 1.1745 level. Only then will a test of 1.1775 become possible. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1810, though doing so without support from major players would be quite difficult. The ultimate target is the high at 1.1865. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only near the 1.1690 level. If there is no interest there, it would be prudent to wait for a retest of the 1.1645 low or to consider opening long positions from the 1.1590 level.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

Pound buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at 1.3745. Only then will the pair be able to target 1.3790, which will be difficult to overcome. The furthest upside target is the 1.3820 level. If the pair declines, bears will try to take control of the 1.3710 level. If they succeed, a breakout from that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3678 low, with the potential to extend losses toward 1.3640.