empty
13.05.2025 12:23 AM
The Dollar Takes Time to Saddle Up but Rides Fast

Investors have shifted from the "Sell America" strategy that emerged after the White House imposed tariffs to "Buy America" amid positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations. While the S&P 500 began climbing as early as April, the dollar held back until the last moment, waiting for the outcome of talks between Washington and Beijing. Only then did EUR/USD bears launch a rapid offensive.

Before his team's visit to Switzerland, Donald Trump suggested that reducing tariffs on China to 80% would be a fair solution. Rumors in the market suggested rates could drop to 60%, but nobody expected a reduction to 30%. Nonetheless, tariffs on U.S. imports fell from 145% to 30%, and on Chinese goods from 125% to 10%. Though the ceasefire is limited to 90 days, Scott Bessent noted that the truce could be extended.

The worst fears that prompted dollar sell-offs—recession concerns—were pushed aside, and EUR/USD quickly moved downward. Investors also recalled how the same Treasury Secretary emphasized the importance of a strong greenback, and how Donald Trump abandoned the idea of firing Jerome Powell as Fed Chair to avoid harming the U.S. currency.

Performance of the Euro vs. the U.S. Dollar Year-to-Date

This image is no longer relevant

This shift in tone from the White House has another motive. EUR/USD has had its strongest start to a year since 2003, driving down the USD Index and heightened inflation risks. On the flip side, excessively high prices increase the likelihood that the Fed will maintain its current federal funds rate, which should support the dollar.

At least, that's the view of Credit Agricole, which has joined the bearish camp on EUR/USD. According to the bank, rumors about the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world's primary reserve currency are greatly exaggerated. Additionally, the loosening of financial conditions supports U.S.-issued assets and gives the Fed room to delay restarting its monetary easing cycle.

Performance of Global vs. U.S. Equities

This image is no longer relevant

Still, the flow of capital out of the U.S. toward other countries in the name of portfolio diversification cannot be easily stopped. Over the past decade, money has overwhelmingly flowed from Europe to North America. But with Donald Trump's return to the White House, the 47th president's imposition of broad tariffs, and Germany's fiscal stimulus, European stock indices are beginning to outperform U.S. ones, benefiting the euro.

This image is no longer relevant

For the first time in three years, the 12-month risk of a reversal in the major currency pair (EUR/USD) has exceeded the 1-month risk, signaling the durability of the upward trend.

EUR/USD forms a "Spike and Ledge" pattern on the daily chart. Holding on to the short positions opened from 1.128 and 1.1225 makes sense. Their fate hinges on the test of support at the pivot level of 1.1165. A breakout would justify adding to the shorts; a rebound would signal to flip the position and go long.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

NZD/USD. Análise e previsão

Atualmente, o par NZD/USD está apresentando uma atividade moderada e atraindo compradores. No entanto, uma forte continuação do movimento de alta ainda não se concretizou, já que o mercado permanece

Irina Yanina 20:52 2025-06-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Análise e previsão

O par GBP/USD mantém-se firmemente acima do nível psicológico-chave de 1,3500, à espera da divulgação do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (CPI) do Reino Unido e das próximas reuniões

Irina Yanina 20:48 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Visão Geral do GBP/USD – 17 de Junho: Reuniões do Fed e do BoE como motivo para vender o dólar

Na segunda-feira, o par GBP/USD também apresentou um comportamento relativamente estável, mas com viés de alta. A libra esterlina não atinge novas máximas de três anos todos os dias —

Paolo Greco 20:24 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Crise no Oriente Médio como um prelúdio para uma guerra global... (Possibilidade de queda limitada para o Bitcoin e o EUR/USD)

O impasse sobre os mísseis entre Israel, representante dos EUA, e o Irã continua. A saída inesperada do presidente dos EUA ontem da cúpula do G7 no Canadá gerou especulações

Pati Gani 17:45 2025-06-17 UTC+2

O mercado pode estar caindo na mesma armadilha novamente

A história parece se repetir. Às vésperas do Dia da Independência dos Estados Unidos, muitos participantes do mercado afirmavam que as ameaças de Donald Trump eram mais barulhentas

Marek Petkovich 17:09 2025-06-17 UTC+2

O kiwi não desiste, apesar da fraca economia da Nova Zelândia

Já havíamos observado que a economia da Nova Zelândia apresenta atualmente sinais de fraqueza, e os dados mais recentes não fizeram nada para contrariar essa avaliação. Os índices

Kuvat Raharjo 15:48 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Euro: Previsão semanal

A moeda europeia continua a se beneficiar da fraqueza do dólar americano, que se tornou ainda mais evidente com o retorno de Donald Trump à cena política. Sinceramente, discutir diariamente

Chin Zhao 22:30 2025-06-16 UTC+2

A libra ignora os dados fracos e tenta persistentemente continuar a subir

Os dados macroeconômicos do Reino Unido publicados na semana passada parecem francamente fracos — tudo está na zona vermelha, o que significa pior do que o esperado. No entanto

Kuvat Raharjo 20:46 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Bitcoin dominado pelo medo

A caridade começa em casa — e a lealdade também. Ao que tudo indica, o comprometimento do 47º presidente dos Estados Unidos com o setor cripto tem menos

Marek Petkovich 18:33 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Dólar norte-americano: Previsão semanal

Mais uma vez, o dólar estará em destaque esta semana, não apenas por causa da reunião do Federal Reserve, mas também pelos desdobramentos políticos nos Estados Unidos. O primeiro ponto

Chin Zhao 18:33 2025-06-16 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.