empty
07.05.2025 10:52 AM
GBP/USD – May 7th: Global Uncertainty and the FOMC

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday reversed in favor of the British pound and closed above the resistance zone of 1.3344–1.3357. Therefore, a rebound from this zone today could again lead to an upward movement toward the 1.3425 level. However, a consolidation below this zone would support the U.S. dollar and resume the decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. Based on recent wave activity, the pair is currently in a sideways trend.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave failed to break the last low. This suggests the bullish trend remains intact, although it is more horizontal than upward. Thus, it will be difficult for the bulls to push the price beyond 1.3425 without new announcements from Donald Trump about imposing or increasing import tariffs.

There was no significant news background on Tuesday, but later today, the FOMC will announce the results of its two-day meeting. I believe that amid global uncertainty, the Fed will leave monetary policy parameters unchanged. Jerome Powell has recently mentioned the possibility of inflation rising due to the trade war. Since controlling inflation remains the regulator's key objective, there is no reason to lower interest rates just yet.

However, in the second half of the year, the Fed may shift from prioritizing price stability to focusing on the broader state of the economy—especially if no major trade agreements are signed soon. The U.S. economy has already begun to slow after a sharp drop in Q1, and this might force the Fed to adjust monetary policy accordingly. As such, we may see rate cuts later in the year, and Powell could hint at this during today's press conference. If that happens, bulls may launch a new offensive.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began falling toward the 76.4% Fibonacci correction level at 1.3118. Currently, no divergences are forming on any indicators. The ascending trend channel still signals a bullish trend. Given the weak fundamental backdrop for bears, a sharp drop in the pair is unlikely for now.

This image is no longer relevant

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report showed a shift toward a more bullish sentiment. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 2,957, while short positions dropped by 6,426. This caused bears to lose their advantage. The gap between long and short positions is now 24,000 in favor of the bulls: 91,000 vs. 67,000.

In my view, while GBP still has downside potential, recent developments could prompt a long-term market reversal. Over the past three months, long positions increased from 80K to 91K, while short positions fell from 80K to 67K. More notably, in the past 14 weeks—coinciding with "Trump's 14 weeks in charge"—long positions rose from 59K to 91K, and shorts declined from 81K to 67K.

News Calendar for the U.S. and UK (May 8)

  • U.S. – FOMC Interest Rate Decision (18:00 UTC)
  • U.S. – FOMC Press Conference (18:30 UTC)

These are major events that may significantly influence market sentiment, particularly in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Sell the pair today if the hourly chart closes below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone, targeting 1.3265 and 1.3205. Buy the pair if it rebounds from the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3425.

Note: In the evening, market sentiment will be shaped primarily by the news backdrop, which may override technical signals.

Fibonacci grids:

  • Hourly chart: 1.3205–1.2695
  • 4-hour chart: 1.3431–1.2104
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.