empty
07.05.2025 10:56 AM
EUR/USD – May 7th: Bulls Are Reversing the Trend

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and rose to the resistance zone of 1.1374–1.1383. A rebound from this zone triggered a decline in favor of the U.S. dollar, with the pair falling back toward the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1265. This marks the sixth consecutive day of range-bound trading between 1.1265 and 1.1383.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the latest downward wave did not breach the prior low. This confirms a sideways trend. However, this range may be a sign of a trend reversal. Recent waves have been weak and small, indicating low trader activity. News from the White House has been sparse, and traders are waiting for updates on trade negotiations.

Tuesday's news backdrop was weak, both literally and figuratively. Service sector PMI indices in Germany and the Eurozone declined to 49.0 and 50.1, respectively. A drop in business activity warns traders of slowing economic growth. Thus, it's not just the U.S. economy suffering from Trump's trade policies—the Eurozone is starting to feel the pressure too. Yet the EU economy, having shown minimal growth in recent years, has little room left to slow down. A further decline would mean contraction, not just deceleration.

Nonetheless, for traders, the trade war remains the dominant factor. Most other news and data are being ignored. As a result, Tuesday's weak EU data had no noticeable impact on market sentiment. Bulls remained active throughout the day, although limited to the established range. Today, bears may take their turn.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined toward the ascending trendline. A rebound from this line would favor the euro and support a renewed rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. A consolidation below the trendline would signal further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1213. However, for the dollar to strengthen, not only technical signals but also strong fundamental drivers—preferably from Trump—are needed. Currently, no divergences are forming on any indicator.

This image is no longer relevant

Over the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 183 new long positions and closed 10,586 short ones. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group has firmly returned to bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. Total long positions held by speculators now stand at 196,000 versus 120,000 short positions. Just a few months ago, the situation was reversed.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players had been selling off the euro, but for the past twelve weeks, they've been reducing shorts and increasing longs. While the interest rate differential between the ECB and the Fed still favors the dollar, Trump's policy outlook is now a bigger influence. His stance could push the FOMC toward a dovish approach and even trigger a U.S. recession, according to market expectations.

Key Economic Events (May 7)

  • Eurozone – Retail Sales Change (09:00 UTC)
  • U.S. – FOMC Interest Rate Decision (18:00 UTC)
  • U.S. – FOMC Press Conference (18:30 UTC)

Two out of three key releases are especially important for the U.S. dollar. News-related volatility may significantly influence the market in the second half of the day. Tariff news also remains a powerful market driver.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Sell positions were possible yesterday on a rebound from 1.1374 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1265. Today, stop losses for these trades can be moved to breakeven, and positions can be held further. Buy positions may be considered upon a rebound from 1.1265 with a target of 1.1374, or upon a close above 1.1383.

Fibonacci Grids:

  • Hourly Chart: 1.1265–1.1574
  • 4-Hour Chart: 1.1214–1.0179
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.