empty
09.05.2025 11:24 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 9, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1338, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell below the support zone of 1.1240–1.1265. A rebound from this zone from below today would signal a continuation of the decline toward 1.1182 and 1.1074. Conversely, a consolidation above 1.1265 would support the euro and resume growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1338.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. This suggests a potential trend shift to a "bearish" one. Recent waves have been weak and shallow, indicating low trader activity. There hasn't been much news from the White House; traders are awaiting results from trade agreement negotiations. Nevertheless, the dollar has started to recover.

There was practically no economic news on Thursday, but traders were still digesting the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell's speech. The Fed's decision to hold rates was long anticipated, so attention was focused on Powell's tone. As usual, Powell reassured markets, saying there's no cause for concern. He mentioned that inflation might increase slightly and temporarily. The U.S. economy slowed in Q1, but a recovery is expected in Q2. Despite Trump's imposition of high tariffs on many countries, trade agreements are expected to eventually improve the situation. Powell made it clear the Fed isn't going to react to every geopolitical shift and prefers to wait for clarity on U.S. trade policy before adjusting monetary policy.

Traders had expected a more "dovish" tone from Powell, but bears began to act only a day after his speech. Better late than never.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair dropped to the 100.0% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1213. A rebound from this level will favor the euro and a rise toward the 127.2% level at 1.1495. A break below 1.1213 combined with a move below the trendline would increase the chances of further decline toward the 76.4% level at 1.0969. No divergence signals are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

Over the last reporting week, professional traders opened 183 Long positions and closed 10,586 Short positions. The "Non-commercial" trader group has returned to a clearly "bullish" sentiment—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 196,000, while Shorts total 120,000. Just months ago, the situation was the opposite.

For 20 weeks, major players were shedding euros, but they've now spent 12 consecutive weeks unwinding Short positions and adding Long positions. The difference in monetary policy direction between the ECB and the Fed still favors the dollar, but Trump's policies remain a key factor for traders, as they could have a "dovish" influence on the FOMC or even trigger a U.S. recession.

News Calendar for the U.S. and EU – May 9:

No important events are scheduled for today. The news background will likely have no influence on market sentiment this Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Sales were possible from the rebound at 1.1374 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1265—which has been reached. Today, consider selling on a rebound from the 1.1240–1.1265 resistance zone with targets at 1.1182 and 1.1074. Buying can be considered on a bounce from 1.1213 on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.1338.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1265–1.1574 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.