The EUR/USD pair continues its growth process. Over the past two weeks, the euro has gained about 400–450 points, which can be considered strong growth. The only reason for the dollar's decline (because it is the dollar that is falling, while the euro and the pound are taking advantage of this) is Donald Trump's policy. From the very beginning of 2026, he began making decisions that made traders' hair stand on end—especially the bears'. Events in the US are developing rapidly, and each new message is worse than the previous one—for the dollar, of course. Thus, probably no one in the market is currently wondering why the dollar has weakened so sharply. There is nothing strange about this either, as throughout the entire second half of last year I consistently spoke about the continuation of a bullish trend. Those who shared this view—congratulations on your successful trades. This week, a new bullish imbalance 12 was formed, and the price finally reached the target I had been writing about all last year—the weekly bearish imbalance. Thus, the ideal scenario now would be a corrective pullback toward imbalance 12 and a resumption of price growth.

However, there is also a second option. The pound worked through its bearish imbalance yesterday and today, may receive a reaction from it, and resume its growth process. In this case, the euro could also continue rising without first filling imbalance 12.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact despite the sideways movement in the second half of last year. A bullish signal was formed at imbalance 11, and a little later a new imbalance 12 appeared. Current long positions are showing good profits, and traders can decide for themselves what to do with them next.

The news background on Friday was mainly related to economic processes. For example, it became known that the unemployment rate in Germany remained unchanged, the German economy grew by 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2% in the fourth quarter (which is still very weak), unemployment in the EU fell to 6.2%, and the EU economy grew by the same 0.3% in the fourth quarter as Germany. In my view, this data can be considered positive, but entirely different topics are currently on the agenda.

Bulls have had more than enough reasons for a new offensive for the past 6–7 months, and with each new day their number only increases. These include the dovish (in any case) outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the US confrontation with China (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, bleak prospects for the US economy (recession), the shutdown (which lasted a month and a half), and a new shutdown (which could begin as early as Sunday). And now this also includes US military aggression toward certain states, criminal prosecution of Powell, the "Greenland confusion," and worsening relations with Canada and South Korea. Thus, further growth of the pair, in my opinion, looks entirely natural.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I am not trying to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered over. Bears would need to push the price down about 570 points to reach it, and I consider this task impossible under the current news background and circumstances. The nearest growth target for the euro was the bearish imbalance of 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021. This pattern has been fully filled this week. Above that, only two levels can be highlighted—1.2348 and 1.2564. These levels are two peaks on the monthly chart. Potentially, price could sweep liquidity from these levels.

News calendar for the US and the European Union:

• European Union – Change in retail sales volumes (07:00 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing PMI in Germany (08:55 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing PMI (09:00 UTC).
• USA – Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC).
• USA – ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 UTC).

On February 2, the economic calendar contains five events, of which only one can be considered important—the ISM. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday may be moderate.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the bulls' side, bears have regularly launched attacks in recent months. Still, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 8, and 9, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some growth, and the bullish trend remained intact. Last week, a new bullish signal was formed from imbalance 11, which once again allowed traders to open long positions with a target of 1.1976. That target has been reached. This week, another bullish imbalance 12 was formed. This means that in the near future, traders may receive a new opportunity to buy.