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08.05.2025 09:53 AM
Fed's Rate Hold and US-China Talks Support the Dollar (High Likelihood of EUR/USD and Gold Declines)
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The Federal Reserve remained firm, with its leadership reaffirming a steadfast wait-and-see approach. Interestingly, the Fed did not respond to notable changes in the economy, citing heightened uncertainty as the primary factor.

Indeed, the first 100 days of Donald Trump's second presidency have already allowed for some preliminary conclusions, pointing to a likely continuation of the "managed chaos" he generates, potentially for the entire four-year term. The 47th president is not merely a symbol of impulsive decision-making but a representation of the deep, systemic changes reshaping American life. Naturally, these changes will significantly affect financial markets, ushering in a prolonged period of volatility.

Regarding the FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference, I think things could have gone differently. Specifically, in acknowledging the uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war and global tensions, the Fed could have hinted that if inflation continues to slow, as recent economic data suggest, it might consider cutting the key interest rate by 0.25%. But that did not happen. On the contrary, Powell acknowledged "elevated risks of higher unemployment and inflation." He also clarified that the Fed will act based on actual data rather than preemptively, as inflation remains stubbornly high.

From a more conspiratorial perspective, the Fed's actions—or lack thereof—and Powell's tone could be interpreted as laying the groundwork for undermining Trump's presidency, which some consider unfavorable to the so-called "deep state." Historically, the Fed has often made preemptive moves to steer the economy. However, in today's polarized environment, the Fed's current stance may be seen as a subtle form of political resistance.

And what about the markets? They are likely to have a tough four years. The ruling class's lack of support and complete consensus will be a source of confrontation and, as a consequence, economic instability. The high volatility and unpredictability of Trump's actions—where he often changes his stance within hours—will result in erratic movements in the markets. His attempts to shift America in a certain direction may lead investors to respond to news and external noise rather than addressing actual economic issues, which they would have previously ignored.

What to Expect Today

Investors will likely focus on the US-China negotiations, interpreting any developments as positive. This could stimulate demand for stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodity-based assets. The dollar may also continue to gain support due to the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady. On the other hand, gold could extend its decline under these conditions.

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Daily Forecast

EUR/USD

The pair is trading near the strong support level at 1.1270. A break below this level likely leads to a drop toward 1.1175. The 1.1262 mark may be a suitable entry point for selling the pair.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold prices are falling amid a strengthening dollar and the optimism surrounding the US-China dialogue. This may lead to a continued decline in gold prices, first toward $3,262.00 and then to $3,210.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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