Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3486 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. I chose not to buy for this reason.

Today, the UK is expected to release data on the net public sector borrowing, along with a speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Market participants will closely monitor these events to assess the current state of the British economy and the BoE's potential monetary policy moves. The borrowing report is expected to reflect the government's funding needs to cover budget expenditures. A high level of borrowing may indicate financial challenges and put downward pressure on the pound. Conversely, a decline in borrowing volumes may be seen as a sign of economic recovery.

Bailey's speech is also of great interest to financial markets. Investors will carefully analyze his comments on inflation, economic growth, and interest rate forecasts. Any signals regarding a potential rate cut could weigh on the British pound.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3481 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3515 (denoted by the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3515, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move from the level). A bullish outlook on the pound today aligns with the observed correction.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3463 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3481 and 1.3515 may follow.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.3463 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 1.3434, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Selling the pound on rallies remains valid within the ongoing bearish trend.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3481 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3463 and 1.3434 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.