empty
20.01.2025 09:02 AM
The Market Finds Shelter

The S&P 500 achieved its best weekly performance since the November U.S. presidential election, just before Donald Trump's inauguration. Initially, investors worried that his protectionist policies could negatively impact the U.S. economy. However, they now believe that the potential benefits from deregulation and fiscal stimulus will outweigh the drawbacks. Is this wishful thinking?

The broad market index surged by 4.7% during the week ending January 17, fueled by a strong start to the corporate earnings season and a 0.2% month-over-month decline in core inflation in the U.S. Major banks such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup reported positive fourth-quarter earnings, alleviating investor concerns. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve refraining from rate cuts in 2025—or even increasing rates—has decreased, boosting confidence in two expected monetary easing actions this year. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) official Christopher Waller even suggested the possibility of easing monetary policy in March.

Weekly S&P 500 Performance

This image is no longer relevant

Bank of America suggests that U.S. equities could benefit from Donald Trump's return to the White House. During his first term, Trump viewed the performance of U.S. stock indices as a measure of his effectiveness, and it is unlikely that this perspective will change from 2025 to 2028. UBS Global Wealth Management estimates a 9% increase in corporate earnings this year, which could push the S&P 500 to 6,600.

According to Jefferies, since 1929, the S&P 500 has historically followed a zigzag pattern during presidential inaugurations, averaging gains of 8.3% and 9.5% six and twelve months, respectively, after a new president takes office.

In the early days of Trump's second term, investors will consider the impacts of tariffs and anti-immigration policies alongside the potential benefits of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. It appears that the new president may begin by implementing import tariffs, setting this term apart from his previous one.

Market Expectations for Fed Policy

This image is no longer relevant

During his term from 2017 to 2020, Trump stimulated the economy through tax cuts but later resorted to tariffs and trade wars, which ultimately slowed down growth. This time, the sequence may be reversed. Import tariffs are likely to accelerate inflation and hinder economic growth, even though the current outlook remains strong. For example, the IMF predicts that U.S. GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2024. Consequently, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy stance could increase, with derivatives currently indicating a 25% probability of a federal funds rate hike.

On the daily chart, the market illustrated the principle: "If the market does not move as expected, it is likely to move in the opposite direction." After an unsuccessful attempt to break below the lower boundary of the triangle, the market successfully breached the upper boundary. A strong test of resistance at 6010 could justify expanding long positions that were initiated at 5930.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Market Realized That Money Isn't Everything

Which is stronger — money or power? The answer to this question became clear very quickly. In the conflict between the most influential president in the world, Donald Trump

Marek Petkovich 00:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Bitcoin Heads for Conflict

The biggest surprise of June has been the divergence between U.S. stock indices and cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 and Bitcoin are typically considered risk assets, historically moving hand in hand

Marek Petkovich 00:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold maintains a positive tone; however, bulls are acting cautiously, preferring to refrain from aggressive buying ahead of the release of the important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report

Irina Yanina 15:30 2025-06-06 UTC+2

WTI. West Texas Intermediate. Traders Await NFP

Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remain in the middle of a three-day range. Prices are supported by hopes for the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-06-06 UTC+2

ECB Meeting Results and Christine Lagarde's Press Conference

The euro responded with a significant rise following the ECB's decision to cut interest rates. But why did this happen? Let's break it down. The key reason behind the euro's

Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-06 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 6th? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A fairly large number of macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, but most of them will not interest traders. For example, the report on industrial production

Paolo Greco 10:11 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for the GBP/USD pair on June 6, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, trading overall calmly and without any rush. There was no news for either the British pound or the U.S. dollar

Paolo Greco 05:47 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Overview for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Thursday, even when the results of the ECB meeting became known. It should be noted that there was no intrigue

Paolo Greco 05:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

The EU Economy Will Not Suffer, According to Lagarde

Today, a meeting of the European regulator took place, where the obvious and expected decision was made to lower all three interest rates by another 25 basis points. The decision

Chin Zhao 02:56 2025-06-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

During the European session on Thursday, the Japanese yen maintained stability, allowing the USD/JPY pair to hold above the key 143.00 level amid a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.