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12.03.2025 05:34 PM
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 12TH (U.S. Session)
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2917 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of 1.2917 shortly after allowed for the execution of scenario No. 2 for buying within the development of the upward trend, leading to an increase of more than 30 points.

The absence of economic data from the UK was enough to sustain the bullish trend in the pound. In the second half of the day, it is crucial to monitor the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and fundamental statistics.

We are expecting data on the U.S. Consumer Price Index and the Core CPI (excluding food and energy) for February. These figures will be key indicators for the Federal Reserve in assessing the current level of inflation and determining the future course of monetary policy. Markets will closely watch the results, as persistently high inflation could push the Fed toward more aggressive rate hikes, which in turn may negatively impact economic growth. Conversely, a slowdown in inflation could allow the regulator to take a more cautious approach, supporting economic activity.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

This image is no longer relevant

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.2971, targeting growth to 1.3011. Near 1.3011, I will exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a reversal movement of 30-35 points. The pound's rise today can be expected within the broader upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2930 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise toward the 1.2971 and 1.3011 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.2930, which will likely trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2885, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point correction. Sellers are likely to emerge if U.S. inflation rises. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2971 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.2930 and 1.2885 can be expected.

This image is no longer relevant

Chart Explanation:

  • Thin green line - represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
  • Thick green line - represents the estimated price where Take Profit can be placed or where profits can be locked in manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
  • Thin red line - represents the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
  • Thick red line - represents the estimated price where Take Profit can be placed or where profits can be locked in manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
  • MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is crucial to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be extremely cautious when making trading decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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