Forex Analysis & Reviews: 15.05.2025 - The Euro Is Losing Direction

Live Chat

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

15.05.2025 12:37 AM

The Euro Is Losing Direction

Inflation in the eurozone remained at 2.2% in April, slightly above the 2.1% forecast, due to a somewhat stronger increase in core inflation. This rise is partially attributed to the impact of Easter, which typically boosts consumer demand. However, the apparent slowdown in average wage growth is an opposing factor influencing prices.

Overall, it can be assumed that core price pressures are easing both in the U.S. and the eurozone, so the European Central Bank will continue to cut rates—no changes are expected in this outlook. The only question is the pace of this easing. Currently, the market sees the ECB and the Federal Reserve on balanced paths in terms of rate cuts, and the current euro valuation reflects this balance.

A positive factor for the euro is the growing optimism in the economy. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index jumped sharply in April by 39.2 points, reaching 25.2. This indicates a noticeable dominance of optimism and growing domestic demand, which is expected to pull the German economy out of stagnation. This contrasts with the very cautious forecasts in the U.S., where sentiment remains divided between expectations of an imminent recession and hopes for a production surge driven by Fed rate cuts and a shift in trade policy.

Market sentiment remains optimistic, but its durability is questionable. Even if the U.S. and China agree on mutually beneficial tariff terms during negotiations, it is unlikely that the U.S. will fully comply. This view currently dominates among Chinese analysts. It is based on historical precedent and the prevailing climate of mistrust that has taken hold since Trump came to power. As a result, any agreement will likely be fragile, limited in scope, and vulnerable to collapse. Add to this the persistent threat of a U.S. recession, and the conclusion is discouraging: the current market enthusiasm is unlikely to last.

Net long positions in the euro have slightly adjusted to €10.76 billion. Speculative positioning remains bullish, but the calculated fair value currently lacks a clear direction.

The EUR/USD pair failed to stay above the 1.1233 support level, retreating on news of a U.S.–China tariff agreement, but quickly bounced back to that level. At present, there is no clear directional bias. The U.S. inflation report supported the rally, which increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. However, the eurozone has not yet provided any internal drivers for further euro strengthening.

Later this week, GDP and employment data for Q1, along with the March trade balance, are expected. Additionally, several ECB officials are set to comment on the current economic situation, which could bring more clarity. For now, there is no trend, and a sideways trading range seems more likely. The 1.1066 support level appears solid and is not expected to be breached, while a rise toward the local high at 1.1574 currently lacks sufficient grounds for realization.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.