empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
27.05.2025 12:23 AM
Complete Uncertainty: EUR/USD Outlook
Open trading account Open demo account

In the eurozone, political issues have once again become a top priority. On May 24, U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on all goods from the EU starting June 1, 2025, stating that "talks with the EU are leading nowhere." However, the markets hardly reacted this time, as they have become accustomed to Trump's sudden decisions often being just as quickly reversed. Indeed, within two days, Trump again reversed his intention to implement the increased tariffs, returning the situation to its previous state.

According to Trump himself, the EU requested more time to "reach a favorable deal." It is unclear whether the two sides will manage to come to an agreement by July 9, but in any case, it seems unlikely that the final tariff level for the EU will end up at 50%. That understanding was enough to calm the markets.

Eurozone PMI indices look weak. The composite index fell to 49.5, entering contraction territory, primarily due to a decline in the services index, which dropped to 48.9. Considering that services account for 73% of the eurozone economy, this trend may signal a slowdown in real GDP growth — meaning that instead of a modest gain of 0.2% in the previous quarter, we could see zero or even negative growth in Q1.

This image is no longer relevant

A similar situation is unfolding in France and Germany, where service PMIs slowed to 47.7 and 47.2 respectively. Only relatively strong manufacturing kept the composite index at an acceptable level. In contrast, the U.S. showed stable growth in manufacturing and services activity.

European Central Bank officials are describing the current environment in bleak terms. Nagel captured this sentiment clearly by stating that uncertainty will likely become the new normal. Additionally, he noted that the current interest rate level is not restrictive, which may suggest a willingness to slow down the pace of rate cuts. Satunas sees a rate cut in June, followed by a pause. Market forecasts for the ECB imply that a June rate cut is inevitable, while expectations for the Fed have shifted toward autumn. For EUR/USD, this setup signals an increased likelihood of a downward reversal.

According to the latest CFTC report, speculative positioning on the euro deteriorated slightly over the reporting week; however, the accumulated bullish bias remains significant. The estimated price has settled below the long-term average, suggesting the bullish impulse is over, and a southward reversal is underway.

This image is no longer relevant

Last week, we forecasted that EUR/USD was finishing its upward movement and entering a sideways range with a downward bias. This forecast did not materialize — the euro still looks confident — but we continue to believe that the period of dollar weakness is nearing its end, and the local high of 1.1574 will not be breached. The current rise can be used to enter short positions, as we expect the euro to remain below 1.1425, making short entries with a stop just above that level quite justified. The target is the lower boundary of the range at 1.1065. As for the further trajectory, given the high level of uncertainty, it is too early to make definitive predictions.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 12 (U.S. Session) The test of the 143.75 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already significantly declined from the zero line, which limited
Jakub Novak
13:32 2025-06-12 +02:00
1570
Forecast
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 12 (U.S. Session) The test of the 1.3570 price level during the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming
Jakub Novak
13:31 2025-06-12 +02:00
1705
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Fed Is Right—It's Too Early to Cut Rates (I Expect a Decline in #SPX and an Increase in Gold Prices)

The fresh U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday, although below the consensus forecast, confirmed the persistence of inflationary pressure. This fully justifies the Federal Reserve's reluctance
Pati Gani 10:37 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trump Threatens Tariffs Again – Markets React

President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he intends to send letters to trade partners within the next one to two weeks outlining unilateral tariff rates. This is ahead
Jakub Novak 09:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 12? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are set for Thursday, but only a few are truly important. The key reports to highlight are the GDP and industrial production data from
Paolo Greco 05:52 2025-06-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 12: Protests Against Trump and Fed Policy

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Wednesday. Naturally, when U.S. inflation data was released, we saw a brief burst of market reaction—though it didn't last long
Paolo Greco 04:07 2025-06-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 12: Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly throughout Wednesday. The market showed no reaction whatsoever to the seemingly positive news regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Why? Because that positivity
Paolo Greco 04:07 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Donald Trump Plans to Suppress the Uprising

For several consecutive days, protests and unrest have continued in some major U.S. cities, sparked by Donald Trump's new immigration policy. This time, the U.S. President has decided to deport
Chin Zhao 00:35 2025-06-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD. In the Shadow of the Trade Deal: U.S. Inflation Report Pressures the Greenback

A mixed U.S. inflation report pressured the greenback. The dollar index returned to 98.00, while the EUR/USD pair refreshed its weekly high, rising to 1.1491. Additional pressure on the U.S
Irina Manzenko 00:35 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Will the Dollar Maintain the Status Quo?

To make accurate predictions about the future, one must examine the past. The more than 10% rally in EUR/USD since the beginning of the year has been driven by four
Marek Petkovich 00:35 2025-06-12 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Currently, the price of gold remains confined within a weekly range. The key factors supporting price growth include a decision by the U.S. federal appellate court to uphold President Donald
Irina Yanina 18:35 2025-06-11 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

At this stage, the Japanese yen continues to trade within an intraday consolidation range, approaching the two-week low against the U.S. dollar reached yesterday. The main factors influencing the movement
Irina Yanina 18:33 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 06:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 12 (U.S. Session)
13:31 2025-06-12
Forecast
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-12 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 12: Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?
04:07 2025-06-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
Trump Threatens Tariffs Again – Markets React
09:10 2025-06-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-06-12 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025
04:40 2025-06-12
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-06-25 UTC--5
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 12-19, 2025: sell below $3,386 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)
05:32 2025-06-12
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.