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02.07.2025 11:58 AM
USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

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The USD/CHF pair continues to trade within a narrow range above the 0.7900 level, remaining close to price levels last seen in 2011.

The US dollar is showing some gains following a modest rebound from a three-year low observed yesterday.

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At the same time, a positive risk sentiment persists, which supports the status of the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency and restrains traders from taking aggressive bearish positions in the USD/CHF pair.

However, a significant dollar rally appears unlikely against the backdrop of growing expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume its interest rate cutting cycle in the near future. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from concerns over the deteriorating fiscal position of the US, which limits attempts at dollar strengthening and, accordingly, upward movement in the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank's more hawkish stance disappointed investors who were counting on a return to negative interest rates this year. This supports bullish sentiment among traders buying the Swiss franc and, given the weak fundamental backdrop for the US dollar, points to a downward trend for the USD/CHF pair.

Today, traders should pay attention to the release of the US ADP private sector employment report, which could set the tone during the North American session. However, the key event will be Thursday's release of the NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the dollar and the USD/CHF pair.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory and are in the oversold zone. Therefore, a modest pullback or consolidation is possible in the near term before the pair resumes its downward movement.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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