empty
03.07.2025 06:53 AM
What to Pay Attention to on July 3? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

This image is no longer relevant

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Thursday, including some key reports. As a reminder, U.S. labor market and unemployment data are typically released on Friday, but tomorrow is Independence Day in the U.S. Therefore, all attention during the U.S. trading session should be focused on these reports, as well as the ISM Services PMI. During the European trading session, only the final estimates of the Services PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone will be released—entirely secondary data.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

This image is no longer relevant

Among Thursday's key events, the only one of note is a speech by Federal Reserve member Raphael Bostic; however, this week, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Jerome Powell have already spoken so many times that the market has likely absorbed all the necessary information. By the way, nothing particularly important or new was conveyed by the central bank heads. However, Christine Lagarde did mention that inflation risks are elevated due to the trade war, and Jerome Powell referenced the labor market as a key factor in future monetary policy decisions. Relevant reports will be published today.

For the market, the trade war remains the most significant factor, with no signs of resolution yet. In the near term, tensions could escalate, as Donald Trump has not signed a single trade agreement (except with the UK). The deal with China is still not considered valid, as the details of the agreement are unclear. The European Union has expressed readiness to sign a trade agreement with the U.S., but has issued its own set of demands, which Trump may easily refuse.

Additionally, don't forget about the ongoing conflict between Elon Musk and Trump, which could escalate to the point of civil unrest or even revolution. None of these events clearly increases the market's willingness to buy the dollar in the medium term.

Conclusions:

On the second-to-last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction, as the direction of movement depends on the U.S. data. Also, remember that at any moment, Trump may make a decision that could once again crash the dollar. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" has been passed, and now a new round of conflict with Elon Musk may begin.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast. Gold is supported by moderate USD weakness and trade-related uncertainty

Today, gold is trading higher, remaining within a sideways trend. Late Thursday, Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller stated that rising risks to the economy could justify a key rate

Irina Yanina 19:15 2025-07-18 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/USD pair climbed above the key psychological level of 0.6500, attempting to confirm its recent positive momentum. The main driver behind the Aussie's rise is the weakening

Irina Yanina 13:49 2025-07-18 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, Friday, the USD/CAD pair is pulling back from a three-week high near 1.3775 recorded yesterday. At the moment, prices are trading slightly below the 1.3730 level, showing a modest

Irina Yanina 13:38 2025-07-18 UTC+2

The European Central Bank May Postpone Its Rate Cut Until December

While the euro attempts to stage a correction against the U.S. dollar, a survey of economists suggests that the European Central Bank may delay its final interest rate cut until

Jakub Novak 11:37 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Powell Responds to White House Criticism

Lately, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has faced increasing pressure, coming under fire from lawmakers, the White House, and U.S. President Donald Trump. In a letter sent on Thursday, Powell

Jakub Novak 11:26 2025-07-18 UTC+2

The U.S. Begins Regulating the Digital Currency Market (Potential for a Correction in Bitcoin and EUR/USD)

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed bills establishing the first federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins and setting regulations for other digital currencies. The idea of regulating the cryptocurrency market

Pati Gani 09:28 2025-07-18 UTC+2

The Market Favors a Weak Dollar

What could be better for the S&P 500 than a Federal Reserve rate cut amid a still-strong economy? A series of positive labor market and retail sales data, combined with

Marek Petkovich 09:28 2025-07-18 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Friday, but none of them are of major importance. The only noteworthy release is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-07-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 18: Is the Market Tired of the Dollar and Trump?

The GBP/USD currency pair once again leaned toward decline on Thursday. After the British pound strengthened on Wednesday evening following another report about Powell's dismissal, the dollar quickly recovered. However

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 18: Trump Will Keep Trying to Fire Powell for Another Year

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady decline throughout Thursday. As a reminder, the forex market experienced an "explosion" on Wednesday evening. Donald Trump once again attempted to either fire

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.