empty
04.07.2025 06:01 AM
EUR/USD Forecast for July 4, 2025

The main event of yesterday largely aligned with our forecasts — specifically, the anticipated "number play" occurred. But it was done very delicately, just enough to halt the growth of anti-dollar currencies. Reuters' initial Nonfarm Payrolls forecast was 120,000, but on the day of the release, it was revised down to 111,000, making the published figure of 147,000 new jobs appear more significant. The May figure was also revised upward by 5,000. Finally, given the preceding very weak labor data — such as initial jobless claims, layoff rates, ISM employment indices, and others — the empirical expectation was about 90,000 jobs added.

Market trading volumes during the last upward wave of the euro in late June were below average and declined each day. Yesterday saw the lowest daily volume. Even accounting for the shortened U.S. trading day, the trend is clear. That is why no significant manipulation of labor data was needed — the goal was achieved: ahead of major political events next week, the advance of anti-dollar currencies has been halted. Even at the European Central Bank conference in Sintra earlier this week, risks associated with a rapidly appreciating euro were noted.

This image is no longer relevant

Today is a holiday in the U.S., so we do not expect strong market moves.

To confirm all of the above, the price must break through the MACD line support on the daily chart around 1.1673. If this happens, the targets will open at 1.1535 and 1.1420.

This image is no longer relevant

On the four-hour chart, the support zone is defined as 1.1673–1.1726, formed by the MACD lines of two timeframes. We await further developments starting next week.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Yuriy Zaycev
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 11, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline toward the 1.1645 level, while the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1712 was largely ignored by traders. A rebound from 1.1645 would

Samir Klishi 12:44 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 11, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and resumed its decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527. A rebound from

Samir Klishi 12:20 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Despite the potential for a correction, gold still has the potential to strengthen today, Friday, July 11, 2025.

XAU/USD, Friday, July 11, 2025. Although it appears to have corrected due to being held at Resistance 1, the continued strength of XAU/USD's technical and fundamental conditions provides an opportunity

Arief Makmur 08:00 2025-07-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

EUR/USD On the weekly chart, we observe a set of reversal signals: divergence, a trend shift in the Fibonacci time zone, and a price rebound from the intersection

Laurie Bailey 07:09 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

GBP/USD On the monthly chart, the British pound reversed from the 161.8% Fibonacci reaction level, calculated from the upper boundary of the global 18-year price channel, immediately after

Laurie Bailey 06:46 2025-07-11 UTC+2

USD/CAD Forecast for July 11, 2025

USD/CAD The Canadian dollar had been consolidating for three days before today's upward breakout during the Pacific session. The price has already pierced the balance line with its upper shadow

Laurie Bailey 06:42 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 10, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move along a trajectory known only to itself. The 127.2% Fibonacci correction level at 1.1712 was once again ignored by traders. I still

Samir Klishi 12:21 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 10, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3527. The rebound was precise, leading

Samir Klishi 10:35 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair is regaining upward momentum and shows readiness for further growth. The formation of an ascending channel confirms the stability of the bullish trend. During

Irina Yanina 10:22 2025-07-10 UTC+2

If the resistance level of 0.7964 holds back its upward movement, USD/CHF has the potential to weaken on Thursday, July 10, 2025.

USD/CHF, Thursday, July 10, 2025 In addition to rumors of a planned Fed interest rate cut and falling US government bond yields, USD/CHF weakened today. Key Levels 1. Resistance

Arief Makmur 06:47 2025-07-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.