Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1551 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.1551 coincided with the moment when MACD was in the overbought zone, which triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the euro, although the pair did not experience a significant decline afterward.

The U.S. trading session promises to be quite dynamic due to the release of several macroeconomic indicators. The focus will be on initial jobless claims, which is one of the key indicators of labor market conditions and helps assess employment trends.

Another important figure will be the trade balance, which reflects the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services. In addition, traders will closely monitor housing market statistics. The number of building permits issued and housing starts are important indicators that reflect future investment in real estate. Positive trends in this sector often strengthen confidence in the economy and can stimulate consumer activity.

However, geopolitics and the situation in the Middle East will be even more important. Developments there will have a direct impact on the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches 1.1564 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1589. At 1.1589, I plan to exit the market and potentially sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be expected after weak U.S. economic data.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1543 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger a market reversal upward. In this case, a rise toward 1.1564 and 1.1589 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1543 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1516, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move upward. Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1564 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1543 and 1.1516 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – entry price where the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – estimated level where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price where the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – estimated level where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is usually best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based only on the current market situation is generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.