The GBP/USD pair reversed after five attempts to consolidate below the two most recent "bearish" swings, but the growth following this warning signal turned out to be short-lived. I marked a "bearish" imbalance on the chart that was and remains quite small. However, it so happened that this imbalance sent the pound into another round of decline. It is likely that a much clearer sell signal in the euro played a far greater role in the new drop of the GBP/USD pair. However, for traders this makes no difference. The U.S. dollar is rising again, rising due to geopolitics, and it is unlikely that anyone can say with more than 50% certainty when the situation in the Middle East will improve.

There was no open escalation of the conflict in the Middle East this week, but, if it can be put this way, Iran has begun to implement the toughest version of its confrontation with the United States and Israel. I assume that many traders expected a repeat of last summer's scenario, when America struck Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran responded by striking American military bases, and the conflict then faded out. However, March 2026 shows that this time the scenario may be completely different. The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked—but for how long? What would have to happen for Iran to lift the blockade? At this point, even that question is difficult to answer.

At the moment there are no bullish patterns, but the price reacted to the small imbalance, which, together with a stronger sell signal in the euro and geopolitical factors, once again allowed bears to advance. Under the current circumstances, the pound may continue its decline toward the 1.3000–1.3100 level, below which the bullish trend would be definitively broken.

The bullish trend for the pound remains intact. As long as it remains (above the 1.3012 level), I would pay more attention to bullish signals. However, there are currently no bullish patterns or signals, while geopolitics continues to weigh heavily on both the euro and the pound.

The news background on Thursday was exclusively American, weak, and contradictory. As I expected, traders paid no attention to it.

In the United States, the overall news background remains such that in the long term it suggests nothing but a decline in the dollar. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed much in this regard. The situation for the U.S. dollar remains quite complicated in the long term but positive in the short term. U.S. labor market statistics continue to disappoint more often than they encourage. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the criminal case initiated against Jerome Powell, government shutdowns, the scandal involving the U.S. elite in the Epstein case, the possible impeachment of Trump by the end of the year, and the highly probable electoral defeat of the Republicans all complement the current picture of a political and structural crisis in the United States. In my opinion, bulls have everything they need to resume their advance during 2026.

For a bearish trend to form, the U.S. dollar would need a strong and stable positive information background, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump and which geopolitics is unlikely to provide. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. Bearish patterns can be used to consider opening sell positions, but personally I doubt the correctness of such a decision. I believe the recent decline in the pair is to some extent the result of a coincidence of circumstances.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Change in GDP in January (07:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Change in industrial production (07:00 UTC).
• United States – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Change in durable goods orders (12:30 UTC).
• United States – GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Personal income and spending (12:30 UTC).

On March 13, the economic events calendar contains quite a few interesting entries, but the market may once again remain fully focused on geopolitical developments. The impact of the information background on market sentiment on Friday may once again be extremely weak.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the long-term picture remains bullish. At the moment there are no relevant bullish patterns; there is only a bearish imbalance, to which the price must first return and react before traders can consider the potential possibility of opening sell positions.

It should be noted that the decline in the pound over the past few weeks has been so strong due to an unfortunate combination of circumstances. If Donald Trump had not promised every other day to attack Iran, had not sent warships to the Persian Gulf, and had not then started a war, we would hardly have seen such strong growth in the dollar. I believe this decline could end just as unexpectedly as it began. However, at the moment it continues, and the price has reacted to the latest bearish imbalance. Under the current unstable information background, I do not attempt to forecast the pound's decline to specific levels.